USMLE-o-gram: Mathematics of Match
Article by :Waqas Nawaz MD
HOW STEP SCORES AFFECT NUMBER OF INTERVIEW CALLS AND MATCHING PROBABILITY-WITH OTHER FACTORS KEPT CONSISTENT;
ANALYSIS
1.
It is based on the results and
data of last 2 years and it is an estimate ;not hard and fast.
2.
All other factors like USCE, RESEARCH AND GRAD YEAR are considered
constant. Making change in them can change the outcome.
3.
Step 3 score; until very high
>235 has effect equal to done or not done.
4.
The number of interviews are those
which are “Genuine” not contact based.
5.
Very clear that how the CS attempt
can make Green zone a Red zone
6.
Also shows that how toppings can
make a RED zone a Yellow zone
7.
Last row shows that with step1,
2<225 ; all 3 toppings needed to make it a yellow zone
8.
A general impression from this
analysis is that “ONE interview call increases the match probability by6-8 % “
9.
All these interviews are those
which are not contact based. Otherwise strong contacts can bring even a person
with step 1, 2 <220 a total of 10 interviews;
10: While calculating all these
match probabilities from number of interviews(with formula
=1 callx6-8% probability)is calculated assuming that all
students have standard interview skills. Otherwise there has been examples in
past when students of yellow zone ( safer zone)with 12-15 calls did not get
matched because of interview skills.
Article by :Waqas Nawaz MD